NHL · 2025-26 regular season
NHL comeback odds: how often teams win from behind
All 1312 games of the 2025-26 regular season, scored period by period. Teams trailing after the 2nd period won 14%; teams trailing after the 1st period won 27.4%. Here is how that changes with the size of the deficit, and which teams beat the odds.
NHL comeback odds by deficit
Share of trailing teams that went on to win, by when they were behind and by how much. Counts in brackets: wins / games.
| Trailing | Down 1 | Down 2 | Down 3+ | Any deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| after the 1st period | 32.4% (178/550) | 21.7% (50/230) | 5.9% (4/68) | 27.4% |
| after the 2nd period | 23.4% (109/466) | 8.5% (25/294) | 2.1% (5/234) | 14% |
How often do NHL teams win when trailing after the 2nd period?
In the 2025-26 NHL regular season, teams that trailed after the 2nd period won 139 of 994 games (14%). Down 1 goal: 23.4%; Down 2 goals: 8.5%; Down 3+ goals: 2.1%.
How often do NHL teams win when trailing after the 1st period?
Teams behind after the 1st period won 232 of 848 games (27.4%). Down 1 goal: 32.4%; Down 2 goals: 21.7%; Down 3+ goals: 5.9%.
Which NHL team is best at coming back?
Dallas graded highest (index 182), winning 8 of 26 games when trailing after the 2nd period. Vancouver ranked last at 3 of 46.
What was the biggest NHL comeback of the 2025-26 season?
By the score at the end of a period, Dallas came back from 3 goals down to win.
Comeback grades for every NHL team
The comeback index compares each team's win rate when trailing after the 2nd period with the league's, shrunk toward average so small samples don't swing it (100 = league average). Grades: A 140+, B 115+, C 90+, D 65+, F below. "Leads blown" counts games the team led after the 2nd period and lost.
| Team | Grade | Index | Won trailing after the 2nd period | Won trailing after the 1st period | Leads blown after the 2nd period | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | A | 182 | 8/26 | 13/22 | 3/34 | 50-32 |
| Carolina | A | 140 | 5/22 | 11/21 | 4/41 | 53-29 |
| Montreal | B | 137 | 6/28 | 11/25 | 6/35 | 48-34 |
| Colorado | B | 136 | 5/23 | 6/16 | 0/41 | 55-27 |
| San Jose | B | 129 | 7/36 | 5/24 | 3/31 | 39-43 |
| Buffalo | B | 119 | 4/22 | 7/26 | 2/37 | 50-32 |
| Edmonton | B | 119 | 6/34 | 3/23 | 6/37 | 41-41 |
| Toronto | B | 117 | 7/41 | 9/30 | 8/25 | 32-50 |
| Utah | B | 116 | 5/29 | 8/22 | 4/33 | 43-39 |
| Tampa Bay | C | 113 | 4/24 | 10/29 | 1/34 | 50-32 |
| Philadelphia | C | 112 | 6/37 | 9/31 | 3/29 | 43-39 |
| Nashville | C | 110 | 6/38 | 6/29 | 7/26 | 38-44 |
| New York (NYR) | C | 110 | 6/38 | 5/32 | 5/24 | 34-48 |
| Vegas | C | 110 | 6/38 | 10/36 | 3/26 | 39-43 |
| Minnesota | C | 107 | 4/26 | 7/26 | 5/39 | 46-36 |
| New York (NYI) | C | 106 | 5/33 | 12/32 | 3/25 | 43-39 |
| Detroit | C | 104 | 5/34 | 9/31 | 5/33 | 41-41 |
| Florida | C | 104 | 5/34 | 4/28 | 3/28 | 40-42 |
| Anaheim | C | 102 | 5/35 | 10/29 | 2/26 | 43-39 |
| Pittsburgh | C | 90 | 3/25 | 5/23 | 9/39 | 41-41 |
| Chicago | D | 86 | 4/35 | 3/24 | 6/24 | 29-53 |
| Los Angeles | D | 84 | 3/28 | 5/26 | 2/27 | 35-47 |
| Washington | D | 84 | 3/28 | 8/25 | 3/34 | 43-39 |
| Columbus | D | 80 | 2/21 | 7/21 | 9/37 | 40-42 |
| New Jersey | D | 74 | 3/33 | 10/33 | 0/24 | 42-40 |
| Ottawa | D | 73 | 2/24 | 6/22 | 7/37 | 44-38 |
| Seattle | D | 70 | 3/36 | 5/28 | 3/24 | 34-48 |
| Boston | D | 69 | 2/26 | 6/22 | 6/39 | 45-37 |
| Calgary | F | 61 | 2/31 | 5/28 | 5/27 | 34-48 |
| Winnipeg | F | 61 | 2/31 | 5/25 | 9/32 | 35-47 |
| St. Louis | F | 60 | 2/32 | 6/25 | 4/30 | 37-45 |
| Vancouver | F | 58 | 3/46 | 6/34 | 3/16 | 25-57 |
How this is built
LiveBetSignals stores the score at the end of every period of every 2025-26 NHL regular-season game from ESPN's public box scores, then checks who was ahead at each checkpoint and who won. The same history sits next to the live price in every LiveBetSignals game report.
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