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NFL · 2025 regular season

NFL comeback odds: how often teams win from behind

All 271 games of the 2025 regular season, scored period by period. Teams trailing entering the 4th quarter won 16.9%; teams trailing at halftime won 23.7%. Here is how that changes with the size of the deficit, and which teams beat the odds.

16.9%won when trailing entering the 4th quarter (44 of 260)
23.7%won when trailing at halftime (59 of 249)
19 ptsbiggest deficit overcome (Denver)

NFL comeback odds by deficit

Share of trailing teams that went on to win, by when they were behind and by how much. Counts in brackets: wins / games.

TrailingDown 1-3Down 4-7Down 8-14Down 15+Any deficit
after the 1st quarter36.1% (22/61)30.6% (34/111)20% (7/35)0% (0/4)29.9%
at halftime42.9% (24/56)29.6% (24/81)12.7% (9/71)4.9% (2/41)23.7%
entering the 4th quarter27.3% (12/44)26.8% (19/71)11% (8/73)6.9% (5/72)16.9%

How often do NFL teams win when trailing entering the 4th quarter?

In the 2025 NFL regular season, teams that trailed entering the 4th quarter won 44 of 260 games (16.9%). Down 1-3 pts: 27.3%; Down 4-7 pts: 26.8%; Down 8-14 pts: 11%; Down 15+ pts: 6.9%.

How often do NFL teams win when trailing at halftime?

Teams behind at halftime won 59 of 249 games (23.7%). Down 1-3 pts: 42.9%; Down 4-7 pts: 29.6%; Down 8-14 pts: 12.7%; Down 15+ pts: 4.9%.

Which NFL team is best at coming back?

Denver graded highest (index 269), winning 4 of 5 games when trailing entering the 4th quarter. Las Vegas ranked last at 0 of 12.

What was the biggest NFL comeback of the 2025 season?

By the score at the end of a period, Denver came back from 19 pts down to win.

Comeback grades for every NFL team

The comeback index compares each team's win rate when trailing entering the 4th quarter with the league's, shrunk toward average so small samples don't swing it (100 = league average). Grades: A 140+, B 115+, C 90+, D 65+, F below. "Leads blown" counts games the team led entering the 4th quarter and lost.

TeamGradeIndexWon trailing entering the 4th quarterWon trailing at halftimeLeads blown entering the 4th quarterRecord
DenverA2694/55/72/1114-3
ChicagoA1984/95/101/811-6
IndianapolisA1833/72/83/88-9
SeattleA1782/43/51/1214-3
BuffaloA1693/84/90/912-5
HoustonA1482/62/51/912-5
CarolinaA1403/114/111/68-9
Green BayB1372/72/52/99-7
JacksonvilleB1321/34/61/1213-4
New EnglandB1321/30/11/1414-3
PhiladelphiaB1191/42/63/1311-6
MinnesotaC1112/102/90/79-8
PittsburghC991/62/51/1010-7
San FranciscoC991/61/60/1012-5
New OrleansC942/133/140/36-11
AtlantaC921/70/43/108-9
BaltimoreC921/73/72/98-9
Los Angeles (LAC)C921/72/70/1011-6
New York (NYJ)D892/141/132/23-14
DallasD791/92/91/77-9
DetroitD791/91/60/79-8
Kansas CityD791/91/70/56-11
ClevelandD741/101/92/65-12
MiamiD741/100/71/77-10
WashingtonD701/110/92/65-12
Los Angeles (LAR)D670/33/52/1412-5
TennesseeF601/142/131/33-14
Tampa BayF460/70/81/98-9
CincinnatiF400/91/92/76-11
ArizonaF370/100/103/63-14
New York (NYG)F370/100/83/74-13
Las VegasF330/121/112/43-14

How this is built

LiveBetSignals stores the score at the end of every period of every 2025 NFL regular-season game from ESPN's public box scores, then checks who was ahead at each checkpoint and who won. The same history sits next to the live price in every LiveBetSignals game report.

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