NBA · 2025-26 regular season
NBA comeback odds: how often teams win from behind
Every play of all 1,231 regular-season games, 2025-26. Teams down 10+ won 23.7%, down 15+ won 11.5%, and down 20+ won 3.3%. Here is how that changes with the clock, and which teams beat the odds.
Comeback odds by deficit and minutes left
Share of trailing teams that went on to win, by how far behind they were and how much regulation time was left. Read across a row to see how fast a lead becomes safe.
| Minutes left | Down 5 | Down 10 | Down 15 | Down 20 | Down 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 min | 38% | 33% | 16% | 10% | under 1% |
| 30 min | 38% | 22% | 17% | 11% | under 1% |
| 24 min (half) | 37% | 22% | 13% | 6% | under 1% |
| 18 min | 32% | 21% | 8% | 4% | under 1% |
| 12 min (Q4 start) | 29% | 17% | 6% | 1% | under 1% |
| 6 min | 25% | 7% | 1% | under 1% | under 1% |
| 3 min | 17% | 2% | under 1% | under 1% | under 1% |
How often do NBA teams come back from 10 points down?
In the 2025-26 regular season, teams that trailed by 10 or more at any point won 332 of 1399 games, or 23.7%. Down 10 with a full half left (24 minutes), the trailing team won 22% of the time; down 10 entering the fourth quarter, 17%.
How often do NBA teams come back from 15 points down?
Teams that fell behind by 15 or more won 106 of 925 games (11.5%). Down 15 at halftime the trailing team won 13% of the time; down 15 with 12 minutes left, 6%; with 6 minutes left, 1%.
How often do NBA teams come back from 20 points down?
Rarely: 20 wins in 599 games where a team trailed by 20 or more (3.3%). Down 20 at the half the trailing team won 6% of the time, and 1% when still down 20 entering the fourth quarter.
Which NBA team is best at coming back?
Oklahoma City graded highest (index 179), winning 12 of 23 games after trailing by 10+, followed by Boston and San Antonio. Indiana ranked last, winning 3 of 60.
Comeback grades for all 30 teams
The comeback index compares each team's win rate after trailing by 10+ with the league's, shrunk toward average so small samples don't swing it (100 = league average). Grades: A 140+, B 115+, C 90+, D 65+, F below. "Blew 10+ leads" is the other side: double-digit leads the team went on to lose.
| Team | Grade | Index | Won down 10+ | Won down 15+ | Best comeback | Blew 10+ leads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City | A | 179 | 12/23 (52.2%) | 4/14 | 21 pts | 8/66 |
| Boston | A | 172 | 18/39 (46.2%) | 5/17 | 22 pts | 9/61 |
| San Antonio | A | 158 | 11/25 (44%) | 7/17 | 25 pts | 15/68 |
| Cleveland | A | 151 | 18/46 (39.1%) | 4/24 | 19 pts | 8/54 |
| Denver | A | 146 | 12/31 (38.7%) | 3/15 | 23 pts | 13/59 |
| Orlando | A | 144 | 18/49 (36.7%) | 7/30 | 20 pts | 11/47 |
| New York | A | 142 | 15/41 (36.6%) | 5/26 | 21 pts | 6/53 |
| Detroit | A | 142 | 11/29 (37.9%) | 2/16 | 17 pts | 6/61 |
| Minnesota | B | 139 | 15/42 (35.7%) | 6/29 | 19 pts | 8/50 |
| Houston | B | 136 | 13/37 (35.1%) | 4/16 | 21 pts | 13/53 |
| Los Angeles (LAL) | B | 126 | 13/41 (31.7%) | 5/29 | 16 pts | 4/55 |
| Los Angeles (LAC) | B | 121 | 13/43 (30.2%) | 5/33 | 24 pts | 12/47 |
| Toronto | C | 114 | 12/43 (27.9%) | 1/26 | 21 pts | 12/53 |
| Atlanta | C | 114 | 12/43 (27.9%) | 4/29 | 22 pts | 8/51 |
| Philadelphia | C | 112 | 12/44 (27.3%) | 2/26 | 19 pts | 11/48 |
| Portland | C | 109 | 13/49 (26.5%) | 3/25 | 22 pts | 9/45 |
| Golden State | C | 103 | 13/53 (24.5%) | 5/30 | 17 pts | 14/48 |
| Phoenix | C | 100 | 10/42 (23.8%) | 3/27 | 20 pts | 13/54 |
| Chicago | C | 99 | 14/60 (23.3%) | 4/41 | 24 pts | 6/29 |
| Charlotte | C | 92 | 9/42 (21.4%) | 4/25 | 22 pts | 10/51 |
| Utah | D | 79 | 12/67 (17.9%) | 4/47 | 15 pts | 16/35 |
| New Orleans | D | 77 | 10/58 (17.2%) | 3/35 | 25 pts | 15/36 |
| Milwaukee | D | 73 | 9/56 (16.1%) | 3/43 | 18 pts | 11/38 |
| Miami | D | 66 | 5/38 (13.2%) | 0/27 | 12 pts | 12/53 |
| Sacramento | F | 62 | 8/62 (12.9%) | 3/48 | 20 pts | 9/25 |
| Memphis | F | 58 | 6/52 (11.5%) | 3/38 | 17 pts | 22/40 |
| Dallas | F | 58 | 7/59 (11.9%) | 2/39 | 17 pts | 10/31 |
| Washington | F | 42 | 5/66 (7.6%) | 3/60 | 20 pts | 11/25 |
| Brooklyn | F | 35 | 3/59 (5.1%) | 1/48 | 23 pts | 12/31 |
| Indiana | F | 34 | 3/60 (5%) | 1/45 | 18 pts | 18/32 |
How this is built
We stored the score at every play of every 2025-26 regular-season game from ESPN's public play-by-play, then marked each team's worst deficit, its margin at fixed checkpoints (36, 30, 24, 18, 12, 6 and 3 minutes left) and the final result. LiveBetSignals uses the same table live: when a favorite falls behind, the alert shows how often teams in that exact spot came back next to the current market price.
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